Smart Grids, Change, Procrastination and So On

I am going to start this post with some trivia. It is supposed to snow here by now. It will snow about nine inches (so they say). I actually hope so and I can also say I am tired of the H1N1 scare and I am tired of warm weather in October and November. It is time for the regular flu, as H1N1 goes to bed. Yes I have had the flu so I know it stinks and can land one in emergency room so I have no intention to make light of it. I guess I am tired of the prognostocaters prognostocating about H1N1.

Skys with no clouds and temperatures in the upper sixties are not what I remember about Montana falls. After 28 of them (winters and falls in Montana) I finally can say I have seen a  few of them and these past few warm ones would be called outliers.

Now to Gore. This is not an easy book to read (lots of cool photos make up for that) but the chapter that Gore entitles,

Super Grid, is a good chapter and at last I can say that a true mitigation for global climate change, what Clinton calls the “smart grid”, finally makes sense to me and it is an infrastructure that we need as we convert to alternative forms of energy.

In short what Gore calls a Super Grid is a very doable infra structure that has all of the available technologies ready to go. Gore has an illustration of this infra-structure,  on pages 90-91. In this illustration you have a number of sensors getting data to distribute energy where it is needed. As I said…we have the technology to build this type of grid now.

If you are like me you cannot stand change, but this has to happen , change that is, if we as a species plan to meet climate change head on. As we prepare to meet the challenges posed by global climate change we must proactively meet this change head on, or we can procrastinate: take our sweet time changing with very little forethought. From what I see in our history we, as a species, do not do well with procrastination.

I would call the New Deal and the Marshall Plan focused determination. Our communal reaction to Hurricane Katrina shows how damaging procrastination can be.

I have been heavily involved with Endangered Wildlife Conservation over a thirty year period and I have seen many examples of procrastination over the years.

I will report more on Gore’s book tommorow. More trivia: it looks as though Gore has saved the “best for last”.

Matt

Global Warming Cycles Threaten Endangered Primate Species

Global Climate Change impacts all of the earths species. Here is an article on how this change will probably impact some new world primates. As you can surmise knowledgeable scientists do not think primates will not make it  through this change.

Wiederholt and Post decided to concentrate on the way the oscillating weather patterns directly and indirectly influence plants and animals in the tropics. Until the research by Wiederholt and Post, this intricate network of interacting factors had rarely been analyzed as a single system. “We know very little about how climate change and global warming are affecting primate species,” explains Wiederholt. “Up to one third of primates species are threatened with extinction, so it is really crucial to understand how these changes in climate may be affecting their populations.”

The research will be published on 28 October 2009 in the Royal Society journal Biology Letters, a fast-track journal of the Royal Society of London.

The scientists focused on the large-bodied monkeys of South America, which are highly threatened. Choosing one species from each of the four genera of Atelines, Wiederholt and Post examined abundance trends and dynamics in populations of the muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus, formerly B. arachnoides) of Brazil, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix lagotricha) in Colombia, Geoffroy’s spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), which was studied on Barro Colorado Island in Panama, and the red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) in Venezuela.

For each species, long-term research projects carried out by other teams over decades have documented the abundance and feeding patterns of these primates. By studying the different species, Wiederholt and Post hoped to highlight the importance of the response to changing climate conditions of the trees that provide the dietary resources for the monkeys. All the species live in social groups and spend most of their time in the trees of tropical forests, using their limbs and prehensile tails to move around or to suspend themselves from branches. The monkeys differ in the proportions of fruit, flowers, and leaves in their diets. Woolly monkeys and spider monkeys predominantly eat fruit, howler monkeys specialize in leaf-eating, and muriquis also eat leaves but consume more fruit than howlers. “Long-term studies like those we derived data from are incredibly valuable for illuminating effects of global warming,” Post said. “Unfortunately for endangered species, such studies also are incredibly rare. We hope our results bring attention to the importance of maintaining long-term monitoring efforts.”

The team hypothesized that the trees’ response to the warming events might provide a crucial link between changes in climate and monkey abundance. To test their hypothesis, Wiederholt and Post needed to compare information on the monkey populations with data on fluctuations in food resources such as leaves, seeds, and fruits. Then, using statistical models, they investigated how food and abundance information related to annual temperature and rainfall information.

Detailed ecological information was not available on each of the forests in which the target species live, so the team used information from Barro Colorado Island — a lowland, moist, tropical forest where Geoffroy’s spider monkey was studied — as a general indicator of what happened over time in each of the habitats. From Barro Colorado, the scientists knew the number of tree species that were fruiting and flowering each month during the years between 1987 and 2004. They also looked at the annual values of flower and seed production for 44 specific tree species with seeds that are spread by mammals.

To examine these factors on a regional and local scale, Wiederholt and Post used information on mean annual temperature, rainfall, and the length of the wet and dry seasons for the years between 1960 and 1990 in Venezuela, Brazil, Barro Colorado Island, and Colombiaavailable. They obtained these data from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and from the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware. “We expected to find a strong relationship between the large-scale climate and the population dynamics of these species,” explains Wiederholt. “We also wanted to tease out which measures of vegetation-response to climatic conditions were most influential.”

The scientists obtained large-scale climate data from the southern oscillation index (SOI), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices (ENSO3, 34, 4, and 12), and the Southern Hemisphere temperature-anomaly index, which are available from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean provided a rainfall anomaly index. The El Niño and La Niña phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO — often called simply “El Niño”) are the cycles of warm/dry and cool/wet periods in oceanic and atmospheric temperatures in the tropical Pacific region. These cycles often are associated with disruptive events in to central and northern South America, such as floods, droughts, or disturbances in fishing or agriculture.

The results of the team’s analyses were spectacular. All four monkey species showed drops in abundance relating to large-scale climate fluctuations. Even though the monkey populations were separated by large distances, the three fruit-eating species had synchronous responses to large-scale warming. During El Niño warming events, trees produced more fruit than usual. Then, during the subsequent La Niña cooling events, the trees produced much less fruit, resulting in a local scarcity or even famine.

Some ecologists have speculated that high production of fruit during El Niño events may have been triggered by the increase in solar radiation, despite lower-than-usual rainfall. However, high productivity during an El Niño event might also use up the stored reserves of the trees, which would have difficulty recovering during the subsequent La Niña events, when weather was wet, cloudy, and cool. This mechanism would explain why the fruit-eating monkeys showed a delayed response to the El Niño events after a lag of one or two years.

Howler monkeys also showed declines with warm and dry El Niño events, but their population fall was out of sync with that of the fruit-eating species. The mechanism is not yet clear, but Wiederholt has some ideas. She notes, “Primate researchers have seen elevated adult female mortality and lowered birthrates among red howlers in drought years. Since leaf flush often occurs at the start of the wet season, a prolonged dry season might delay the availability of this resource for the howlers and perhaps cause them nutritional stress.”

Warmer temperatures also may cause leaves — the howlers’ primary food — to mature faster, which would accelerate the leaves’ acquisition of toxins and other chemical defenses against monkeys. The factor that the scientists found was most influenced by changes in climate was the monthly maximum number of tree species that were fruiting. Climate changes also were highly correlated with the monthly maximum number of species that were flowering and with annual seed production. The length of the dry season also was highly correlated with annual flower production. Thus, vegetation responses to climatic conditions substantially altered the food resources available to primates, which in turn influenced the decline or rise in monkey abundance.

Global warming already has produced a rise of 0.74 degrees over the last century, and an additional increase of 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius is anticipated over the next century. “El Niño events are expected to increase in frequency with global warming,” explains Post. “This study suggests that the consequences of such intensification of ENSO could be devastating for several species of New World monkeys.”

The researchers say that now, more than ever, quantitative studies that delineate the complex ecological links between climate, vegetation, and animal survival are urgently needed.

This study was funded by Penn State’s Graduate Fellowship Program in a grant to Ruscena Wiederholt.

Salazar Launches DOI Climate Change Response Strategy

Salazar, Sect. of Interior, has hit a good tone on this debate. I am impressed with him. Please read. 

Matt

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar today launched the Department of the Interior’s first-ever coordinated strategy to address current and future impacts of climate change on America ’s land, water, ocean, fish, wildlife, and cultural resources. 

 “Across the country, Americans are experiencing first-hand the impacts of climate change, from growing pressure on water supplies to more intense droughts and fires to rampant bark beetle infestations,” said Salazar.  “Because Interior manages one-fifth of our nation’s landmass and 1.7 billion acres on the Outer Continental Shelf, it is imperative that we tackle these impacts of a failed and outdated energy policy.  This secretarial order is another milestone in our continuing effort to change how Interior does business to respond to the energy and climate challenges of our time.”

 The secretarial order signed today at Interior’s command center establishes a framework through which Interior bureaus will coordinate climate change science and resource management strategies.  Under the framework:

 -A new Climate Change Response Council, led by the Secretary, Deputy Secretary and Counselor, will coordinate DOI’s response to the impacts of climate change within and among the Interior bureaus and will work to improve the sharing and communication of climate change impact science, including through www.data.gov; 

 -Eight DOI regional Climate Change Response Centers, serving Alaska, the Northeast, the Southeast, the Southwest, the Midwest, the West, Northwest, and Pacific regions – will synthesize existing climate change impact data and management strategies, help resource managers put them into action on the ground, and engage the public through education initiatives; and

 —A network of Landscape Conservation Cooperatives will engage DOI and federal agencies, local and state partners, and the public to craft practical, landscape-level strategies for managing climate change impacts within the eight regions.  The cooperatives will focus on impacts such as the effects of climate change on wildlife migration patterns, wildfire risk, drought, or invasive species that typically extend beyond the borders of any single National Wildlife Refuge, BLM unit, or National Park. 

 “The unprecedented scope of climate change impacts requires Interior bureaus and agencies to work together, and with other federal, state, tribal and local governments, and private landowner partners, to develop landscape-level strategies for understanding and responding to climate change impacts,” said Salazar.

 In addition to coordinating DOI’s response to the impacts of climate change, the Climate Change Response Council will oversee the DOI Carbon Storage Project, through which the Department of the Interior is developing methodologies for both geological (i.e., underground) and biological (e.g., forests and rangelands) carbon storage, and the DOI Carbon Footprint Project, through which DOI will develop a unified greenhouse gas emission reduction program, including setting a baseline and reduction goal for the Department’s greenhouse gas emissions and energy use. 

 Today’s Secretarial Order builds on Secretarial Order No. 3285, issued on March 11, 2009, which prioritized development of renewable energy on public lands and offshore waters in order to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil and to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. 

Interior plays a lead role in helping the nation address the impacts of climate change.   

Through the National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Reclamation,  Minerals Management Service, and Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior oversees one-fifth of the nation’s landmass and 1.7 billion acres on the Outer Continental Shelf, supplies drinking water to more than 31 million people and irrigation water to 140,000 farmers, manages iconic wildlife species from the Arctic to the Everglades, holds trust responsibilities on behalf of the federal government for over 500 tribal nations, and is home to the nation’s top scientists and natural and cultural resource managers.

See the Arctic and It’s Fauna While You Can

This is a morbid view, but it is how I feel.

Matt

Closer than the Antarctic, the Arctic region is the up and coming destination for adventure travelers. Cruise North Expeditions runs regular cruises into the Arctic starting at locations just a few hours flight from very cosmopolitan Montreal.

Enjoy an experience of a lifetime, as recent fellow cruise members described it, to the land of Inuit, polar bears, musk ox, walrus, and, well only a few, mosquitoes. Inuit people prefer this name to Eskimo which means “eaters of raw flesh.” They are the only hunting culture left on the North American continent.

Recently we sailed aboard a Russian ice class ship, the Lyubov Orlova, which is named after a famous Soviet actress. The ship is leased by the Inuit owned company, Cruise North Expeditions. Indeed we spent some days cracking through ice covered seas while viewing walrus and seals on ice floes and polar bear and musk ox on small rocky islands. We even got to see rare white beluga whales.

 

Arctic Polar Bear, Montgomery photo

Different than the traditional cruise, an expedition cruise offers more opportunities for outdoor activities and attracts adventuresome people, age range from 10 to 85 years. Activities can range from easy walks and investigation of local Arctic flora to vigorous climbs in search of musk ox and the interesting thick billed Muure, a sort of small penguin that nests by the 1000’s on rocky ledges. http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/birds/murre.html.

Each day on board experts give interesting lectures on everything from wild life to Inuit games.
Zodiac expeditions take you to mostly uninhabited, except by Arctic wildlife and vegetation, rocky isles. An occasional tiny Inuit village welcomes you where you can meet local folks and often enjoy a performance of Inuit throat singing and even get a lesson in this unusual musical technique.

The food and service aboard the Lyubov Orlova are excellent and the cabins well appointed and comfortable.

 

 

Walrus on Ice Floe, Montgomery photo

One of the many admirable aspects of this Inuit owned and run cruise line is that they have an excellentapprenticeship program that recruits young Inuits from their villages to join the cruises. They work in various capacities as tour guides, expedition leaders, zodiac captains, and navigator trainees in preparation for future employment. As Dugald Wells, the President of the company, said to me: “These kids come to realize the outside world is interested in their culture and that opens up loads of possibilities for them they hadn’t dreamed of before

More On the Belaguered Whitebark Pine and the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear

In todays Bozeman Chronicle, the local paper says that this year is a good year for whitebark pine nuts near Jackson, Wyoming, about 200 miles south of here.

I do not want to sound like a pessimist but I do think white bark pine is on its way out.  The pine will either go the slow way…by blister rust, an exotic, man introduced fungus or faster by the mountain pine beetle, an artifact of a warming planet which I also think was caused by man. The white bark pine, which over the long haul will not be here and it is a primary food in the Yellowstone Ecosystem for grizzlies. 

Grizzly and black bears, eat the hard work of red squirrels, which harvest, then bury, the cones. Clark’s Nutcrackers, in the jay family, also eat these cones. These cones grow in about 4 year cycles and they are a major food source for the grizzly. When white bark pine nuts fail bears will often end up in towns or in hunters camps in the fall where they are often shot. Problem is we do not have many grizzly bears. The white bark pine is being petitioned to be listed under the protection of the Endangered Species Act by a national group the Natural Resources Defense Concil (NRDC).

Matt

Many Blogs Out there, Here Are Two Good Ones

I hope you read some of the same wildlife blogs I have. There are not many but there are some good ones and they write about a variety of topics. These blogs have a lot of good information and I certainly am very much impressed by them.

Of National Groups I have a huge bias towards anything the NRDC puts out…and they are GOOD writers and hard workers and smart, passionate people. They cover a lot of environmental topics in the US. They write a lot about a lot of good topics that include articles about endangered species and global climate change.

More regional, and also from a huge area is the Yellowstone Ecosystem which is covered by Ralph Maughn. Ralph Maughn’s blog, named Ralph Maughn’s Wildlife News. It is excellent and it can be very topical. The only thing is I wish is that Maughn would right more posts.

The good news for Maughn is that he is probably out in the hinterlands of Yellowstone roaming around.

I sure did in my past. Many of my best ideas were hatched while looking at a myriad of stars in the unlighted backcountry skies, or after the adrenylan flow that happens when you have a close encounter with huge, shaggy bison, antlered bull elk, or any elk for that matter, or the clacking huff of a mad bear.

Matt

More On One Of My Favorite Subjects

I thought you (readers) might find this interesting to read whilen I get my hand on Weaver’s book again.

Matt

ScienceDaily (June 19, 2009) — The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has released reports documenting the status of polar bears and Pacific walrus in Alaska. The reports confirm that polar bears in Alaska are declining and that Pacific walrus are under threat. Both species are imperiled due to the loss of their sea-ice habitat due to global warming, oil and gas development, and unsustainable harvest.

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“Polar bears and walrus are under severe threat, and unless we act rapidly to reduce greenhouse pollution and protect their habitat from oil development, we stand to lose both of these icons of the Arctic,” said Brendan Cumming, oceans program director at the Center for Biological Diversity.

The reports, issued pursuant to the Marine Mammal Protection Act, summarize information on population abundance and trends of polar bears and walrus, threats to the species, and include calculations of human-caused mortality and whether that mortality is sustainable.

There are two polar bear populations in Alaska: a Southern Beaufort Sea stock, which is shared with Canada, and a Chukchi/Bering Sea stock which is shared with Russia. The Pacific walrus occurs in the Bering and Chukchi seas and is shared with Russia.

For the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear stock, the Fish and Wildlife Service estimated a minimum population of 1,397 bears and an annual human-caused mortality of 54 animals, well above the calculated sustainable rate of 22 animals per year. The stock assessment states that “the Southern Beaufort Sea population is now declining.”

For the Chukchi/Bering Sea polar bear stock, the Service estimated a minimum population of 2,000 bears and an annual human-caused mortality of 37 animals from Alaska and between 150-250 bears killed per year in Russia. The calculated sustainable rate of harvest is 30 animals per year. The stock assessment states that “the population is believed to be declining” and is “reduced based on harvest levels that were demonstrated to be unsustainable.”

For the Pacific walrus, the Service estimated a minimum population of 15,164 animals and an annual human-caused mortality of between 4,963 and 5,460 animals. The calculated sustainable rate of harvest is 607 animals per year.

Of the three population estimates, only the estimate for the well-studied Beaufort Sea polar bears is considered reliable. The Chukchi/Bering Sea polar bear population is based on incomplete data and could be an overestimate, while the walrus estimate is an underestimate as it only represents surveys in about half of the walrus habitat and does not account for walrus not counted because they were in the water rather than hauled out on ice.

“These reports publicly confirm what scientists have known for several years: Polar bear and walrus populations in Alaska are in trouble,” added Cummings. “And even if the population numbers are not precise, we know that without their sea-ice habitat they are likely doomed.”

The Marine Mammal Protection Act requires that the secretary of the interior and the secretary of commerce prepare stock assessments for marine mammals. The assessments are meant to be used as the basis for management decisions such as permitting the killing or harassment of the animals from commercial fisheries, oil and gas exploration, boating and shipping, and military exercises.

To ensure that decision-makers have the most accurate information, stock assessments are supposed to be revised every year for endangered marine mammals and every three years for other species. While the National Marine Fisheries Service – the agency responsible for whales, dolphins, and seals – has largely complied with this requirement, the Fish and Wildlife Service, responsible for polar bears, walrus, sea otters, and manatees, had completely ignored it.

In 2007 the Center sued the Wildlife Service and obtained a court order requiring the release of updated reports. Stock assessments for the Florida manatee were released last week, while sea otter reports were issued last year.

The polar bear is currently listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of a petition and litigation by the Center for Biological Diversity. The Fish and Wildlife Service is under court order to make a finding on the Center’s petition to protect the Pacific walrus under the Endangered Species Act by September 10, 2009.

A copy of the stock assessments released June 18 .

The Sunderbans and Tigers

This is an area of southeast Bangledesh. The Sunderbans are a protected mangrove forest along the coast. This area is being ravaged by global warming. The area is perhaps the last place in the world where tigers regularly kill human beings.

First of all tigers rarely live in mangrove forests. Tigers regularly prey on human fishermen and Honey Hunters.

What these professions have in common is that they occur in an isolated part of the world, in isolated habitat  in fifty years this habitat will be underwater and it will not be the fault of the very poor people of the Bay of Bengal or Bangeladash. We, in the US, are the major reason that that part of the world, and other parts of the world, will be underwater as a result of global warming we have caused. China and other developing countries who want to be like the US are now very much more like the US and if those countries survive the global financial crisis they too will grow dramatically as they pursue their own version of the American Dream.

There are protected areas of the Sunderbans but it does not keep out desperately poor local persons trying hard to raise large and extended families.

I am not a human eating tiger’s apologist but I will say that tigers are exploiting an opportunity that is an artifact of our behvior…and the tiger killing of humans will occur for the duration of these behaviors, or until the local persons are removed from the Sunderbans or the area becomes inundated in water…it is like a game of Russian Roulette for the Sunderban people and if tigers disappear here they have very few strongholds left…talk about catch 22’s.

Matt

Partners In Flight

Partners in Flight (PIF) is a coordinated effort to conserve North American Landbird populations. This coordinated effort consists of Federal Agencies, State Agencies, Local Government, Conservation Groups, Professional Groups and Academic Organizations.

Their mission is to plan a conservation strategy for birds at risk, to keep common birds common and to work on voluntary partnerships for birds, habitats and people. They produce North American Conservation Plan, a local version of the plan that is made up of states or physiographic regions and technical reports all about bird conservation.

PIF has goals to ensure active, scientifically based conservation plans for bird species, to work to coordinate and promote partners, to ensure vigorous and active commitments to ensure that landbirds are conserved.

Partners are completely autonomous, supporting all forms of landbird conservation strategies, but the partners must support principles of PIF conservation strategies.

If you read the North American Conservation Plan you will realize just how complicated the PIF plan is for wild landbirds. PIF goes to great lengths to identify birds at risk.

Examples of a landbird at risk are the White-headed Woodpecker, which has a restricted range in Ponderosa pine forests along the Columbia River System, in Oregon and throughout the lowlands of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Nowhere is this woodpecker common in its restricted range.

Another example of landbird bird at risk is the California Condor. This is a species that was almost extinct. There were a low number of wild birds out in areas of the Las Padres National Forest of Southern California. You can still see birds in the Las Padres Forest but you can now find a reintroduced population in the Grand Canyon.

There are species of birds that nest in the neotropics that are at risk, and there is not control over these birds that winter in the neotropics. An example would be the Cerulean Warbler, never a common bird or the Swainson’s Warbler, again never a common bird but rarer now.

A common landbird species might be a species like the Mourning Dove or the Chimney Swift; both species have millions of birds. So did the Passenger Pigeon, who used to make the sky black as the bird flew over and is now extinct. It makes one wish PIF was around in the heyday of the Passenger Pigeon.

But it wasn’t. Maybe the Cerulean Warbler can be helped in North America by Conservation efforts like PIF. This is a plan for birds made up by bird conservationists

New Year Greetings

I am so glad we survived to a new year. 2008, which was one of the worst years I can remeber and I know I am not alone with that thinking.

I got books about endangered wildlife, global climate change and one fiction, “Lion Among Men” for Christmas and a Redskins sweatshirt from a sister and brother-in-law (Boo Hoo!).

Thomas Friedman (prize winner and author of “Hot, Flat and Crowded” and writes in a style where I do feel hopeless about global climate change, but I feel hopeful) is still very high on my list of favorite authors and there are other authors who get what is going on. I have written about them on this blog.

I think Gore and Hansen are prescient about what I think is the real issue of our day and I very much think groups like the Chesapeake Climate Action Network, and there are others, are way ahead of what will and is a troublesome plight.

Good ridance Bush and Cheney…I never thought I would say that about an American president and I, like many of you, survived Nixon.

So try to have a Happy New Years…I know I will try!!!!!
Matt